Weighing Benefits and Costs of Military Action Against Iran
- Publisher
- Rice University's Baker Institute
- Published
- 2012-09-20
- Type
- research report
- Link
- https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/weighing-benefits-and-costs-of-military-action-against-iran
- Last checked
- 2026-10-26
- Rights
- reference only — we link and describe; we do not republish the text.
Cited in
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Defense and Security
Everyone said this would happen: 50 years of warnings that Iran would close Hormuz and that bombs alone could not end its program
The Shah said Iran could close Hormuz in 1972; Iran threatened it in 1983, 1984, 2011, 2018 and 2025; a 2012 bipartisan study said strikes buy four years at most and invite retaliation at the strait. By September 2026 the US was losing.