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Russian oil sanctions, one year on: repeated waivers, a Hungary carve-out and a $22 billion sale that has not closed

Since sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil in October 2025, the administration waived them three times during the Iran war, gave Hungary a one-year exemption now up for renewal, and Lukoil's $22 billion foreign portfolio is still unsold.

Event date: October 22, 2025 – October 22, 2026 Published: 2026-10-26 Last reviewed: 2026-10-26 Next review due: 2026-11-25 Revision: 1
People and organizations
Donald Trump, Trump administration, Department of the Treasury, Government of Russia
Places
United States, Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Europe
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Reporting — Original reporting by an identified news organization that we opened and dated. Investigative findings are attributed to the outlet, not asserted as adjudicated fact. More
Research records
HCR20261021-08

What happened

In October 2025 the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil producers, to reduce Moscow's ability to pay for its war in Ukraine, with a threat of further sanctions against entities that bought oil from them [1][7]. Three developments since then have narrowed the measures in practice. First, after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met Trump at the White House on November 7, 2025, a White House official said Hungary had received a one-year exemption for using Russian oil and gas; Hungary's government said the exemption was indefinite [1]. Second, after the US-Israeli attacks on Iran in March 2026 pushed up oil prices, the Treasury issued a 30-day general license allowing purchases of sanctioned Russian oil already loaded on tankers, then let it lapse and renewed it in April and again in May before allowing it to run out on June 17, 2026 [2][3][4]. Third, the forced sale of Lukoil's foreign portfolio, initially valued at about $22 billion, has still not closed: Carlyle Group dropped its bid in October 2026 and the Treasury extended the negotiating deadline to November 21 [6][7].

Why it matters

Sanctions work through consistency, and each exception changes who pays. The Hungary exemption let a NATO member keep buying Russian oil through the Druzhba pipeline and Russian gas through TurkStream while the rest of Europe was being pressed to stop [1]. The Iran-war waivers were justified as relief for poor countries cut off from Gulf oil by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but an Atlantic Council analyst told Reuters they would increase Russia's oil revenues, which had already risen with prices, and offset the effect of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries [3]. The Lukoil sale shows the other side of enforcement: a year after the designation, Russia's second-largest producer still owns the oilfields, refineries and fuel stations it was supposed to shed, while US-connected bidders position themselves to buy them [6][7].

The evidence

On the Hungary exemption, Reuters reported on November 8, 2025 that Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Facebook that "there are no sanctions on oil and gas shipments to Hungary for an indefinite period", while a White House official repeated by email that the exemption was for one year and said Hungary had committed to buying about $600 million of US liquefied natural gas [1]. Orban lost power at an April 2026 election, and on September 24, 2026 the new Magyar government's foreign minister said Budapest was working to extend the exemption beyond its November expiry because the energy company MOL needs more time to diversify [5].

On the waivers, AP reported that the Treasury's April 17, 2026 license suspended sanctions for 30 days on Russian oil loaded on tankers as of that day, extending a March license that covered oil loaded by March 11; two days earlier Bessent had said at the White House, "We will not be renewing the general license on Russian oil" [2]. Reuters reported the May 18 renewal as the second time the Treasury had let the waiver lapse and then extended it, and noted that the license covered only oil loaded by April 17 [3]. On June 17 the waiver ran out at midnight with no extension published, after Washington and Tehran reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war; officials did not say whether the sanctions were thereby re-imposed [4].

On the Lukoil sale, Reuters reported that Carlyle had agreed on January 29, 2026 to buy Lukoil's foreign assets excluding Kazakhstan, explored partnering with Abu Dhabi funds Mubadala, XRG and IHC and with the US Development Finance Corporation, and said on October 9 it was no longer actively pursuing the deal [6]. The same report cited the Financial Times that US billionaire Todd Boehly had secured backing from the US government and from Gulf power brokers with ties to Trump's family to bid for the assets [6]. On October 22 the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control extended the deadline for companies to negotiate with Lukoil to November 21; Rosneft has announced no divestments [7].

Response and counterpoints

Bessent said the waivers responded to requests from poor and energy-vulnerable countries that could not get Gulf shipments while Hormuz was closed, would "help stabilize the physical crude market", and did not apply to oil Russia was currently pumping [3]. He also argued the measure let those countries compete with China for previously sanctioned barrels [3]. The White House framed the Hungary exemption as time-limited and conditioned on diversification, including the LNG purchases [1]. Trump, asked at the G7 in June whether sanctions would be re-imposed, said "we are looking at that" and pointed to falling oil prices [4]. Analysts quoted by Reuters said the short waivers did little to lower US gasoline prices and that British and European sanctions on Russian oil remained in place [3].

What remains uncertain

Whether US sanctions on Russian seaborne oil were formally re-imposed after June 17, 2026 was not stated by officials in the reporting we opened, and we have not located a later Treasury statement that settles it [4]. The Hungary exemption's duration was contested from the first day, and whether Washington extends it past November 2026 is pending as of this writing [1][5]. The $22 billion figure is an initial valuation of Lukoil's portfolio reported by Reuters, not a sale price; no buyer has been approved [6][7]. The report that Todd Boehly's bid has US government backing and Gulf backers connected to Trump's family comes from the Financial Times as cited by Reuters; we have not reviewed the underlying FT reporting and no transaction has been completed [6].

Money and method

Lukoil International portfolio: about $22 billion, a reported initial valuation, not a realized sale [6]. Hungarian LNG commitment: about $600 million in contract value, as stated by a White House official, not a disbursed amount [1]. Waiver effects: Reuters reported Brent above $112 a barrel on May 18, 2026 and an analyst's judgment that the waivers increased Russia's oil revenue; no dollar estimate of that increase appears in the sources we opened and none is offered here [3].

Sources cited

  1. [1]
    Hungary's waiver from US sanctions on Russia energy is indefinite, minister says — Reuters, 2025-11-08.
    supports · Paragraphs 1-2 (Hungary's indefinite claim vs. White House one year; Lukoil and Rosneft sanctioned the previous month), 5-8 (Szijjarto quotes; White House email; $600 million LNG), 10-11 (Orban on TurkStream and Druzhba) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-russian-oil-01
  2. [2]
    US extends waiver on Russian oil sanctions to ease Iran war shortages despite Bessent denial — Associated Press, 2026-04-18.
    supports · Paragraphs 1-3 (Friday extension; 30-day license for oil loaded on tankers; March license covered oil loaded by March 11; Bessent's 'we will not be renewing' statement at the White House on Wednesday) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-russian-oil-02
  3. [3]
    US extends sanctions waiver on Russian oil to aid vulnerable countries — Reuters, 2026-05-18.
    supports · Paragraphs 1-6 (May 18 extension after Saturday lapse; requested by vulnerable countries during Hormuz closure; second lapse-then-extend), 10 (first license issued in March after US-Israeli attacks on Iran), 13 (covers oil loaded as of April 17), 14-15 (Atlantic Council: waivers increase Russia's oil revenue), 16 (Brent above $112) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-russian-oil-03
  4. [4]
    US quietly allows waiver on Russian oil to expire — Reuters, 2026-06-17.
    supports · Paragraphs 1-4 (June 17 waiver ran out at midnight; officials did not say whether sanctions were re-imposed; US-Iran memorandum of understanding; Trump quotes at the G7), 6 (pattern of lapse then extension) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-russian-oil-04
  5. [5]
    Hungary looking to extend US sanctions waiver on Russian energy — Reuters, 2026-09-24.
    supports · Paragraphs 1-2 and 6 (Magyar government seeking extension of the one-year exemption due to expire in November; Orban lost power in April; MOL needs more time to diversify) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-russian-oil-05
  6. [6]
    Carlyle drops out of race for Lukoil international assets — Reuters, 2026-10-09.
    supports · Paragraphs 1, 4-6 (Carlyle no longer pursuing deal; January 29 agreement excluding Kazakhstan; Mubadala, XRG, IHC and US DFC talks; portfolio initially valued at about $22 billion; Exxon and others interested; FT report on Todd Boehly bid with US government backing and Gulf backers tied to Trump's family) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-russian-oil-06
  7. [7]
    US extends deadline for buyers of Lukoil foreign assets until November 21 — Reuters, 2026-10-22.
    supports · Paragraphs 1-4 (OFAC extended negotiation deadline to November 21 after Carlyle dropped its bid; sanctions imposed October 2025 on Lukoil and Rosneft; Rosneft announced no divestments), 7 ($22 billion, at least a dozen interested companies) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-russian-oil-07

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